Buying a home isn’t just about chasing the lowest rate or waiting for the perfect market dip, it’s about understanding the long game.
While headlines focus on market swings, the real opportunity often slips quietly under the radar. In today’s Arizona market, a combination of easing rates, softened prices, and seller incentives has created a rare alignment.
The data might not make front-page news, but it tells a clear story: the window many buyers have been waiting for is already here.
The reasons to buy a home are usually obvious: rental fatigue, equity building, tax benefits, stability, the freedom to design a space that’s yours. What’s less obvious, and much harder to get right, is when to buy.
Too many buyers try to “time the market,” waiting for that perfect collision of low prices and low interest rates. But here’s the quiet truth: when that window opens, it rarely comes with headlines. It’s easy to miss if you’re standing on the sidelines waiting for the next drop.
Let’s look at a few numbers from The Cromford Report that reveal what’s really happening right now:
- Mortgage rates fell from 6.85% in mid-July to 6.1% by mid-September, a 7.5% drop in payments and the lowest rate in over a year. Yet, while refinancing spiked, purchase applications lagged. Human nature took over; people wanted to see where rates would land. After three weeks of stability around 6.3%, buyer activity finally jumped, marking the strongest October in three years.
- Prices also shifted. Listings under $1M dropped an average of 2.5% from May to August, then steadied through fall. The biggest corrections? Entry-level price points:
- Condos (Maricopa County, $250K–$300K): Down 4.3% since July, 15% from 2022 peaks
- Single-family (Pinal County, $300K–$400K): Down 6.7% since April, 15% from 2022 peaks
- Single-family (Maricopa County, $300K–$400K): Down 2.9% since last year, 13% from 2022 peaks
Add it up, and the indicators for buyers are hard to ignore:
- Lower prices
- Lower rates
- Seller contributions on over half of closings
- A calmer Q4 market with more inventory and less buyer competition
And one more thing, the most important factor of all:
5. Time in the market beats timing the market.
Appreciation works like compound interest. The longer you hold, the more equity and wealth you build.
The opportunity isn’t waiting for the “perfect” moment, it’s recognizing when the math, mood, and motivation line up enough to start.
The perfect market isn’t a date on the calendar; it’s a moment of alignment between your goals and the numbers in front of you. Right now, both are leaning in your favor.
If you’ve been waiting for “someday,” let’s talk about what today could look like.
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