Is This a Good Time to Buy or Sell in Phoenix?

For the right buyer, this fall is one of the better windows we’ve had in years. For the right seller, it’s a good time to list with a clear plan and a realistic price. In September, a lot of people across the Valley hit pause at the same moment. Prices held nearly steady while the number of new contracts dropped sharply, and that gap is where the opportunity lives on both sides.

Here’s what happened, and what it means for your kitchen table.

What the September numbers say

According to Phoenix REALTORS, pending sales across Greater Phoenix fell about 40 percent in September compared with last year. That’s the number of homes going under contract, and it’s the one that tells us how people are feeling.

Now look at everything else:

• The median sales price for a single-family home was about $475,000, down roughly 2 percent from last September.
• Homes sold for about 98 percent of their list price, the same as a year ago.
• Homes took about 77 days to sell, a little faster than last September’s 79.
• The number of homes for sale rose almost 7 percent, and there’s now about 4.3 months of supply, up from 4 a year ago.

So prices didn’t fall off a cliff. Homes are still selling close to asking. What changed is that fewer people signed on the dotted line.

Why everyone paused at once

I think of it like a dinner party where everyone looks at their plate at the same time. Nothing is wrong with the food. People are just thinking.

Affordability is the big reason. The Phoenix REALTORS affordability index dipped to 72, which means the typical household income covers about 72 percent of what it takes to qualify for the median-priced home at today’s rates. When rates keep moving, people wait to see where they’ll land before making a big decision. That’s a completely human response.

And here’s the piece that matters most. Today, affordability is mostly about the monthly payment, more than the price on the listing.

If you’re thinking about buying

The pause works in your favor. With fewer buyers writing offers and more homes to choose from, you have room to breathe, compare, and negotiate.

Ask about seller concessions. Many sellers are willing to help with closing costs or a rate buydown, and a buydown can lower your monthly payment more than a small price cut would. Get a real pre-approval, know the payment you’re comfortable with (that may be lower than what the lender approves), and let’s look at what that payment buys you right now.

If you’re thinking about selling

You can still sell well this fall. It takes a plan.

Price it right on day one. Buyers are watching closely, and a home that comes on too high gets scrolled past during its first few weeks, when it gets the most attention. Think about offering a concession up front, especially if you’re competing with new construction nearby, because builders are offering incentives too. And give yourself a realistic timeline, so a slower month doesn’t feel like a verdict on your home.

What I’m watching next

October’s numbers come out later this month, and I’ll be watching two things: whether contracts pick back up as buyers adjust to rates, and whether inventory keeps climbing. If you want to know what all of this means for your street, ask me. Every neighborhood tells its own story, and yours is the one that matters.

The market will do what it does. Your next chapter gets to be built on real numbers and a steady plan.

Whenever you’re ready, I’d be honored to walk beside you with Jennuine support.

Joyful real estate that feels like home.

WITH JOY,

P.S. What’s Jennuine Living, again?

We’re a gaggle of REALTORS®, Lenders, and Creatives that makes joyful real estate feel like home.

We bring creativity, peace of mind, and a sense of delight into one of life’s biggest transitions, so that our clients’ experience:

-> More joy, less stress and fewer ‘oh crap’ moments.

-> No guesswork, no surprises, just honest communication.

-> Connection first – here, you are family.

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